Objectives
- Identify major drivers of patient volume: attendance, weather, event type, alcohol, crowd age, bounded vs unbounded venue
- Apply at least two published predictive models to a real event
- Explain why models disagree and why local historical data outperforms literature averages
Readings
- Hartman N, et al. Predicting resource use at mass gatherings (2009)In library ↗✓ source-verified
- Zeitz KM, et al. Predicting patient presentations (2005)In library ↗✓ source-verified
- One retrospective multi-year event dataset papercitation only
Paired field experience
Attend a pre-event planning meeting. Generate your own staffing prediction before the event; compare predicted vs actual after.
Deliverable
One-page predicted-vs-actual analysis with explanation of variance.
Tier expectations
Medical student
Run one model with provided inputs.
Resident
Run multiple models, justify a staffing recommendation, defend it to the medical director.