A Retrospective Application of the Arbon and Hartman Models to the Union Cycliste International Mountain Bike World Cup[1]
Summary
Introduction: Outdoor activities have accelerated in the past several years. The authors were tasked with providing medical care for the Union Cycliste International (UCI) mountain biking World Cup in Snowshoe, West Virginia (USA) in September 2021. The Hartman and Arbon models were designed to predict patient presentation and hospital transport rates as well as needed medical resources at urban mass-gathering events. However, there is a lack of standardized methods to predict injury, illness, and insult severity at rural mass gatherings. Study Objective: This study aimed to determine whether the Arbon model would predict, within 10%, the number of patient presentations to be expected and to determine if the event classification provided by the Hartman model would adequately predict resources needed during the event. Methods: Race data were collected from UCI event officials and injury data were collected from participants at time of presentation for medical care. Predicted presentatio