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Research on risk factors of human stampede in mass gathering activities considering organizational patterns[1]

Lu Y, Wang J, Dai W, Zou B, Lu X, Hong W · 2025 · Front Public Health

Summary

Analysis of 209 overcrowding/stampede cases coded via Grounded Theory plus ISODATA clustering, testing how ORGANIZATIONAL PATTERN shapes stampede risk. Proposes an organization coefficient and identifies three patterns with rising risk: organized events (coefficient 1.92), "applied" events (2.98), and spontaneous gatherings (4.43). The patterns differ significantly in aggregation causes, layout characteristics, and risk level, while sharing similarities in triggering behaviors, knowledge/awareness, and management factors. Framed as theoretical evidence for pattern-specific prevention.

So what

Quantitative confirmation of the organizer gradient the library's case literature implies: spontaneous gatherings carry roughly 2.3x the risk coefficient of organized ones in a 209-case dataset — putting numbers under Hawkins (celebratory riots) and Ranse's spontaneous-events review, and giving municipal planners a defensible reason to treat unpermitted gatherings as the highest-risk class. The shared factors across patterns (triggering behaviors, awareness, management) mark what training fixes regardless of event type. Companion to the Shafiei taxonomy on the causal side.

Key findings

  • 209 stampede/overcrowding cases, Grounded Theory + ISODATA clustering
  • Organization coefficient: organized 1.92 < applied 2.98 < spontaneous 4.43
  • Spontaneous gatherings ~2.3x the risk coefficient of organized events
  • Patterns differ in causes/layout/risk; share triggering-behavior and management factors
  • Quantifies the organizer gradient behind Hawkins + Ranse spontaneous-events findings

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