MGMIMass Gathering Medicine

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Emergency medical preparedness and response for mass gatherings: Papua New Guinea emergency medical team's experience during Pope Francis's 2024 visit[1]

Oli U, Nou GG, Hosea R, Konigala K · 2026 · Western Pac Surveill Response J

Summary

Field report of the Papua New Guinea national Emergency Medical Team (EMT) leading clinical operations for Pope Francis's state visit in September 2024, where an estimated 70,000 people gathered at the national stadium - framed as baseline data on EMT involvement in mass gatherings in a low- and middle-income country (LMIC). Using Arbon's mass-gathering model the team predicted a patient presentation rate of 330 over the 2 days (4.7 per 1000); the actual load was 257 patients (3.7 per 1000), managed with a hub-and-spoke model over 6 weeks of multipartner planning (National Department of Health EMT with the St. John Ambulance service and provincial partners). St. John first-aid stations treated 200 patients, chiefly for dehydration and headaches, while an Advanced Casualty Management Centre handled 57 cases of heat-related illness and chronic-condition exacerbations. The authors present the deployment as a national milestone and a feasible, scalable model for LMIC mass-gathering preparedness in the WHO Western Pacific Region, highlighting multipartner collaboration and the Interagency Integrated Triage Tool.

So what

A rare, recent worked example of mass-gathering medicine in a low-resource setting, and a clean predicted-versus-actual test of the Arbon model the field leans on: Arbon forecast 4.7/1000 and the event ran at 3.7/1000, close enough to be planning-useful and slightly conservative - a data point for anyone defending a predictive model to a sceptical organiser. The structural lessons travel beyond PNG: a hub-and-spoke geography (many low-acuity first-aid stations feeding one Advanced Casualty Management Centre) is the same tiered logic the needs-assessment and disposition-power material favours, and the case-mix is the canonical mass-gathering profile - the bulk (200/257) minor (dehydration, headache) with a smaller serious tail (57 heat/chronic-exacerbation) - which is exactly what a five-tier plan is sized around. Its distinct value is as the LMIC / EMT-led reference point the library otherwise lacks, and as evidence that multipartner (health ministry + voluntary ambulance + provincial) coordination plus a standard triage tool can deliver a major event on six weeksّ planning. Caveats: single event, descriptive field report, small serious-case numbers - cite for the model, the Arbon calibration point, and the LMIC baseline, not for rates generalisable to other settings.

Key findings

  • Pope Francis PNG state visit, Sept 2024; ~70,000 at the national stadium; LMIC EMT-led operation
  • Arbon model predicted PPR 330 / 4.7 per 1000 over 2 days; actual 257 patients / 3.7 per 1000 (model slightly conservative)
  • Hub-and-spoke model; 6 weeks planning; National Dept of Health EMT + St. John Ambulance + provincial partners
  • St. John first-aid stations 200 (dehydration, headaches); Advanced Casualty Management Centre 57 (heat illness, chronic-condition exacerbations)
  • Presented as a scalable LMIC preparedness model; multipartner collaboration + Interagency Integrated Triage Tool as the frameworks

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