Music Genre as a Predictor of Resource Utilization at Outdoor Music Concerts[1]
Summary
Ten-year retrospective review of one open-air amphitheater: 403 concerts, 2,399,864 attendees, 4,546 EMS patient presentations (mean 11.4/concert). After adjustment for confounders — of which only heat index >=90F and festival format were significant — genres with significantly increased medical usage rate were, in decreasing order: alternative rock, hip-hop/rap, modern rock, heavy metal/hard rock, and country. Complaint profiles differed by genre: trauma peaked with alternative rock; alcohol/drug intoxication with hip-hop/rap. Transport rates were highest for intoxicated patients and lowest for trauma, and were reduced under high heat index, alternative rock, and country. Authors propose the regression for planning and call for prospective validation.
So what
The modern successor to Grange 1999 with a decade of single-venue control: genre predicts not just HOW MANY patients but WHAT KIND — trauma genres versus intoxication genres — which converts genre from a staffing multiplier into a case-mix forecast (extraction teams and splints for rock; toxicology posture for hip-hop/rap). The two non-genre drivers that survived adjustment, heat index >=90F and festival format, echo Locoh-Donou's factor analysis from a different venue class. One venue, adjusted analysis — the cleanest genre dataset in the literature.
Key findings
- 403 concerts, 2.4M attendees, 4,546 patients at one amphitheater over 10 years
- Adjusted genre ranking: alternative rock > hip-hop/rap > modern rock > metal > country
- Genre predicts case mix: trauma (alt rock) vs intoxication (hip-hop/rap)
- Heat index >=90F and festival format the only significant non-genre drivers
- Transports highest for intoxication, lowest for trauma
Read the paper
- Publisher (DOI) ↗may be paywalled
- PubMed ↗abstract · free